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FULTON FINANCIAL CORP (FULT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • EPS beat on strong operating leverage; operating diluted EPS was $0.52 vs S&P Global consensus $0.43, while GAAP diluted EPS was $0.49 (efficiency ratio improved to 56.7%, PPNR rose) . Q1 EPS (S&P Primary EPS) beat by $0.09 per share*.
  • Revenue definition matters: company “total revenue” (Net Interest Income + non-interest income) was $318.4M, but S&P Global tracked revenue at $304.5M vs $314.9M consensus, implying a modest miss on S&P’s basis* . For estimate comparisons, we anchor to S&P Global.
  • Balance sheet and credit improved: NIM rose 2 bps to 3.43% as total deposit costs fell 11 bps to 2.03%; NPAs declined to 0.62% of assets; CET1 climbed to ~11.0% .
  • 2025 operating guidance maintained; rate path assumption updated (now four 25 bp cuts starting June). Effective tax rate guidance raised to 18–19% (from ~18%), and management flagged potential NII/fee trending to the lower half of ranges given slower growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Operating efficiency and profitability improved: “Operating earnings per share of $0.52 … positive operating leverage … efficiency ratio dropped to 56.7% … operating ROA 1.25% … operating ROTCE 15.95%” .
    • Funding costs eased and NIM ticked up: NIM 3.43% (+2 bps q/q); total cost of deposits fell 11 bps to 2.03% through “disciplined deposit pricing” .
    • Credit and liquidity strengthened: NPAs fell to $199.0M (0.62% of assets), ACL/NPLs rose to 193%, and available liquidity covered net estimated uninsured deposits by 276% .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Loans declined $182M linked qtr as risk actions and strategic choices weighed on balances; loan yields fell 11 bps to 5.86% and NII decreased $2.5M with rate/day-count headwinds .
    • Near-term NIM pressure items: ~$195M of sub-debt reset from fixed to SOFR+230 bps, adding “$6+ million” annual interest expense; management expects NIM to be “a little pressured” near term .
    • Fee revenues showed mixed prints beneath the headline: day count/transactional softness and lower mortgage spreads offset a $2.4M equity-method income benefit; management guides fee income towards the lower half of the range on market sensitivities (wealth, mortgage) .

Financial Results

Income statement trend (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Interest Income ($USD Millions)$258.009 $253.659 $251.187
Non-Interest Income ($USD Millions)$59.673 $65.924 $67.232
“Total Revenue” = NII + Non-Interest ($USD Millions)$317.682 $319.583 $318.419
Provision for Credit Losses ($USD Millions)$11.929 $16.725 $13.898
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.33 $0.36 $0.49
Operating Diluted EPS ($)$0.50 $0.48 $0.52
Net Interest Margin (%)3.49% 3.41% 3.43%
Efficiency Ratio (%)59.6% 58.4% 56.7%
Net Charge-offs / Avg Loans (annualized, %)0.18% 0.22% 0.21%

Year-over-year snapshot

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Net Interest Income ($USD Millions)$206.937 $251.187
Non-Interest Income ($USD Millions)$57.140 $67.232
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.36 $0.49
Operating Diluted EPS ($)$0.40 $0.52
Net Interest Margin (%)3.32% 3.43%
Efficiency Ratio (%)63.2% 56.7%
Provision for Credit Losses ($USD Millions)$10.925 $13.898
Non-Performing Assets / Assets (%)0.57% 0.62%

Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global basis, Q1 2025)

MetricActualConsensus MeanSurprise
Primary EPS (Operating EPS)$0.52*$0.43*+$0.09*
Revenue ($USD Millions, S&P-defined)$304.521*$314.853*-$10.331*

Note: Company “total revenue” (NII + non-interest income) was $318.419M; S&P Global’s revenue definition for banks can differ (we anchor estimate comparisons to S&P Global methodology) .

  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Non-interest income detail (linked-quarter)

Non-Interest Income Line ($USD Thousands)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Wealth Management21,596 22,002 21,785
Commercial Banking (Total)22,289 22,454 21,329
Consumer Banking (Total)14,928 14,309 13,068
Mortgage Banking3,142 3,759 3,138
Other5,425 6,089 7,914 (incl. +$2.4M equity-method)
Investment Securities Gains (Losses), net(1) 0 (2)
Total Non-Interest Income59,673 65,924 67,232

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025
Loan Yield (%)5.97% 5.86%
Total Cost of Deposits (%)2.14% (implied from cohort)2.03%
Net Loans (End, $USD Billions)$24.045 $23.863
Deposits (End, $USD Billions)$26.129 $26.329
Loan-to-Deposit (L/D) Ratio (%)~92% (calc)91% (CFO remark)
CET1 Capital Ratio (%)10.8% 11.0%
Tangible Common Equity (TCE) Ratio (%)7.5% 7.8%
ACL / Loans (%)1.58% 1.59%
ACL / NPLs (%)172% 193%
Available Liquidity / Net Est. Uninsured Deposits (%)276% 276%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Non-FTE Net Interest IncomeFY 2025$995–$1,020M $995–$1,020M Maintained
Provision for Credit LossesFY 2025$60–$80M $60–$80M Maintained
Non-Interest IncomeFY 2025$265–$280M $265–$280M (may trend to lower half) Maintained (tilt lower half)
Operating Non-Interest ExpenseFY 2025$755–$775M $755–$775M Maintained
Effective Tax RateFY 2025~18.0% +/- 18%–19% Raised
FultonFirst Non-Operating ExpenseFY 2025~$14M remaining in 2025 New/clarified
CDI AmortizationFY 2025~$22.5M; 2H25 $5.2M/quarter Clarified run-rate
Rate Path Assumption20252 cuts (Mar & Jun) 4 cuts starting June More easing in model
Common DividendQ1 2025$0.17 (Q4) $0.18 declared 3/18/25 Raised in Q4; maintained in Q1

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3–Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
NIM & Funding CostsQ4 NIM 3.41%; cost of funds fell 14 bps NIM 3.43%; total deposit cost down 11 bps to 2.03%; deposit betas slowing; sub-debt reset adds ~$6M annual expense Improving core costs; near-term NIM pressure from sub-debt
Loan Growth & MixQ4 loans -$131M; strategic balance actions Loans -$182M; specific actions (commercial construction -$231M, indirect auto -$38M), faster troubled asset resolutions; low-single-digit loan growth expected for year Cautious H1; modest growth later
Credit QualityQ4 NPAs 0.69% of assets; NCOs 0.22% NPAs 0.62%; NCOs 0.21%; ACL/NPLs to 193%; remain cautious on outlook Gradual improvement; vigilance maintained
Fees & DiversificationQ4 non-interest income improved; M&A-related noise Equity-method income +$2.4M; fee areas seasonal/transactional; guide to lower half of range (wealth/mortgage sensitivity) Mixed; market-sensitive
Capital & BuybacksCET1 10.6% in Q4 CET1 11.0%; $25M capacity to repurchase 2030 sub-notes; repurchased ~30k shares late in Q1 Optionality improving
Macro/Tariffs FocusMonitoring tariff impacts; Ag (~$1B) and manufacturing most sensitive; no material impact yet Watchlist topic

Management Commentary

  • CEO framing: “Operating earnings per share of $0.52 … positive operating leverage … efficiency ratio dropped to 56.7% … operating ROA 1.25% … operating ROTCE 15.95% … growing our tangible book value per share, 13.8% on an annualized basis” .
  • Strategic actions: “$38 million decline in indirect auto … $231 million decline in commercial construction as certain projects we elected not to convert … accelerated resolutions of troubled assets … loan growth expected to be in the low single-digit range for the year” .
  • CFO on NII/NIM: “NII … $251 million … NIM increased 2 bps to 3.43%. Loan yields declined 11 bps to 5.86% … average cost of total deposits decreased 11 bps to 2.03% … cumulative non-maturity deposit beta 29% and total deposit beta 25%” .
  • Guidance color: “Confirming operating guidance … updated rate forecast to include four 25 bp cuts in 2025 with the first in June … NII and noninterest income could trend towards the lower half of the respective ranges” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Loan growth trajectory: Pipelines up y/y; originations consistent; Q1 decline driven by strategic headwinds/risk actions; expect low-single-digit growth for 2025 .
  • NII rate sensitivity: A 25 bp cut is ~-$1.7M annual NII headwind at current positioning .
  • Expense outlook: Operating expenses expected $190–195M per quarter for the remaining three quarters (timing effects; midpoint comfortable) .
  • NIM headwinds: $195M sub-debt refi to SOFR+230 bps adds $6M+ annual interest; deposit betas slowing; margin likely “a little pressured” near term .
  • Capital return: Priorities are organic growth, corporate initiatives, then buybacks; small buyback (~30k shares) late in Q1; valuation supportive .
  • Credit reserves: ACL influenced by lower balances, construction migration, lower nonaccruals vs. macro forecast; expect Moody’s scenarios to get incrementally negative near term .
  • Portfolio sensitivities: Monitoring tariffs—Ag (~$1B) and manufacturing are focal; minimal import/export exposure; some auto dealer exits contributing to loan decline .

Estimates Context

  • EPS beat: S&P Global Primary EPS actual $0.52 vs $0.43 consensus (+$0.09); seven estimates*.
  • Revenue (S&P-defined) miss: $304.5M actual vs $314.9M consensus (–$10.3M); six estimates*. Company “total revenue” (NII + non-interest income) was $318.4M, reflecting definition differences .
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Where estimates may adjust:

  • Management reaffirmed ranges but guided NII and fee income towards the lower half given slower growth and market sensitivity (wealth, mortgage), and flagged near-term NIM pressure from sub-debt reset and CD repricing .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Profitability momentum is intact (operating EPS beat, better efficiency), aided by deposit cost management; however, near-term NIM faces discrete pressure from the sub-debt reset and CD renewals .
  • Loan balances likely stabilize before inflecting later in 2025; strategic risk management remains a headwind to reported growth but improves asset quality (NPAs down; ACL/NPLs up) .
  • Guidance is steady with a modestly higher tax-rate band and a more accommodative rate path; management transparently frames NII/fee bias to lower-half of ranges if growth remains slow .
  • Capital flexibility is improving (CET1 11.0%); small buybacks occurred and authority added to repurchase sub-notes—offering optionality if organic opportunities remain limited .
  • Fee income quality is mixed under the surface; equity-method uplift offset seasonal/transactional softness—wealth/mortgage remain macro-sensitive into 2H .
  • Dividend was maintained at $0.18 (declared March 18); cash return remains consistent while pursuing transformation and integration priorities .
  • Liquidity and deposit profile are strong (coverage of net uninsured at 276%); stable funding supports risk-managed growth and cushions against macro shocks .